The bumpy ride continues

Only influencers and armchair strategists can be wrong without serious consequences. Political leaders can sometimes escape their responsibilities, but business leaders know that they need to make choices with long-term consequences on which they will be judged. For many businesses, the policies of the current US & Russian administrations continue to make such decisions risky, and appear unlikely to bring about a more peaceful, prosperous and sustainable world. Meanwhile the rest of the world is organising around these countries by adjusting supply chains, alliances and investment plans to try to create some stability. No one knows the final outcome of the big changes and realignments occurring, however, major opportunities for nations, regions and companies appear inevitable. Such opportunities could benefit Europe and, in particular, the UK.

The enormous achievements of the EU in rebuilding Europe’s post WW2 economy and peacefully assimilating many of the ex-Soviet bloc states are often intentionally overlooked by critics. Clearly, the EU and all democratic European states erred in depending too much on the US military shield, but this appeared to be a good mutual bargain with US firms having extensive access to European markets, and the European NATO members serving as a buffer against possible Russian aggression. All this has now changed. The new reality brings European states new risks and also a renewed incentive to work together to build a strong defence capability and a world-leading regional economy. There will be further shocks but hopefully a more united Europe can withstand them and perhaps even get a dividend from the exodus of talent from US universities and other organisations.

Within this context, the UK has a government committed to economic growth to provide better public services and greater prosperity for everyone. The turnaround task has been, and still is, enormous and like any private sector turnaround, this process is painful. Keys to success must be the restoration of good trading relations between the UK and the EU, as well as a unified European response to the military threat from Russia. The UK government is focussing on clear objectives including, infrastructure investment, and major steps to improve the nation’s health and education for all. Priority in industrial policy is being given to science, innovation and technology in which the UK has major strengths and a continued commitment to the goal of net zero emissions.

We expect that the current situation will strengthen Europe in comparison to the US and perhaps London in comparison to New York. These are objectives worth working for despite further inevitable bumps along the way. The Industry Forum is spoiled for choice in finding new issues to discuss and we are working hard on our Autumn programme. Our next meetings are on the Middle East situation and working more closely with Europe.